Will the desktop browser landscape change?

February 17, 2010 · by Espen André Øverdahl

Single-browser development is bound to have its final nail in the coffin, says Bruce Lawson in an interesting article posted on the ZDNet UK blog earlier this month.

As some of you may know, everyone in the 30 countries that make up the European Economic Area, who has Internet Explorer as the default browser on Windows XP, Vista or Windows 7, will be asked to choose a new default browser soon.

It is likely to believe that many will choose IE (again) as their primary brower. But some, once presented with an opportunity, could reject their former browser (after all the bad publicity surrounding its security flaws) and choose something entirely different.

Interviews carried out by Google could indicate that many do not know what a browser is, let alone that they have a choice (source).

What do you think? Will the "choice screen" change the desktop browser landscape?

Readers' comments 32

Left under the original article, as archived.

Joseph D. LienWednesday, February 17, 2010 1:41:55 PM
It's quite sad how few people actually "get" what a web browser is, at even the simplest level. 8% of New Yorkers interviewed know what one is?! One would think that represents a slightly more sophisticated American than perhaps, rural ones too, which is even more scary. Most of them don't know the difference between a search engine and a browser.

I hope that, at the very least, the choice screen will help people to become aware of what a Web browser is, and that there are choices. That very ignorance is probably one of the biggest reasons that Internet Explorer has been able to achieve such great dominance in the market, despite being an inferior product than all its competitors.
praetor87Wednesday, February 17, 2010 2:02:52 PM
if the 10.5 will be a fancy bunch of bugs, the anwer is no.
Andylee SatoWednesday, February 17, 2010 3:13:46 PM
I think it won't change a lot.

Internet Explorer contains the word "Internet". For this, the IE will remain the choice of most people who don't know what a browser is.

Firefox is widely known, so maybe they will gain some users, but I don't think there will be very many switching because of the choice screen.

Safari is unknown or known as a Mac-Browser, so it also won't gain that much popularity.

Opera can get a huge step forward in being known at all, but I don't think that Opera will also make a big step forward in being used. Maybe 0.5-1.0% or something, but nothing that will change the market in total.
■Wednesday, February 17, 2010 3:52:57 PM
That depends on the marketing. Most people like to believe they have free will but it all comes down to strong advertising and subliminal messages, like >> INTERNET << explorer
pawelsnkWednesday, February 17, 2010 3:56:48 PM
Originally posted by michaelpuermayr:

Internet Explorer contains the word "Internet". For this, the IE will remain the choice of most people who don't know what a browser is.

Firefox is widely known, so maybe they will gain some users, but I don't think there will be very many switching because of the choice screen.

Safari is unknown or known as a Mac-Browser, so it also won't gain that much popularity.

Opera can get a huge step forward in being known at all, but I don't think that Opera will also make a big step forward in being used. Maybe 0.5-1.0% or something, but nothing that will change the market in total.

Unfortunately my opinion is the same. Blue E perceived as Internet may win again.

The only exception might be Chrome because it's Google's. Who doesn't use Google's search engine? Those who won't choose IE will choose Chrome IMO.

Gain of Opera and FireFox will rather be small but who knows...
PurdiWednesday, February 17, 2010 3:57:49 PM
Originally posted by praetor87:

if the 10.5 will be a fancy bunch of bugs, the anwer is no.

Oh, the trolls are out in force already.
johnnysaucepnWednesday, February 17, 2010 4:20:23 PM
Originally posted by michaelpuermayr:

Internet Explorer contains the word "Internet". For this, the IE will remain the choice of most people who don't know what a browser is.

This doesn't necessarily follow. Bear in mind the number of people that think that their operating system is 'Office 2007', or that their word processor is 'Windows'.
techlawsamWednesday, February 17, 2010 5:27:11 PM
yup
Cutting SpoonWednesday, February 17, 2010 5:45:12 PM
"Jah, my nephew installed this...Fox Fire thing. He said it was really safe but I can't get used to these buttons."

Then I showed him that he still had Internet Explorer. Some people may never learn. They say that our younger generation is more computer-savvy, but from experience they're even worse because they aren't afraid of breaking things.
Dark FurieWednesday, February 17, 2010 5:48:36 PM
You know this is nothing to do with Opera 10.5 don't you?
Dark FurieWednesday, February 17, 2010 5:52:31 PM
Espen, simply giving people a more transparent choice is likely to change more than just the browser landscape. When people who didn't think they could change these things are presented with a choice (which most will naively attribute entirely to Microsoft's goodwill) they'll start trying out new things. They'll wonder why other standard parts don't have choices and a good percentage will go looking for more options there. It's more about educating the user than anything else.
Andy oharaWednesday, February 17, 2010 6:06:39 PM
No one thought ie would take off like it did. Netscape came close, maybe time for something new. Look around the corner. Newcomers are waiting. i like opera for my phone and my friends say google chrome easy to use. Firefox good and can be used on u3 memory sticks. Dont discount ie windows own version 8 seems ok at the moment. c u around. Andy
Cutting SpoonWednesday, February 17, 2010 6:19:22 PM
In my experience, many people need someone to sit them down and hold their hand while they explore any new software. Others disable their Windows Updates entirely. I think a lot of folks will be troubled and confused if their PC spits up a message that they need to CHOOSE how to use the internet, when previously they just clicked a button and went online.

My favorite broken system is when they shut the thing off while it's installing a series of updates or - grace forbid - a Service Pack. I think this ballot screen will help, and there should be plenty of news coverage, but we just won't know how much is going to change until after the fact.
YndiWednesday, February 17, 2010 7:43:37 PM
now I know why you are pushing Opera 10.5 for Windows so hard.

I really hope you catch some good voices at the time 10.5 comes out and MS asks for a new default browser.

But I maintain sime PCs for friends and the family, so I can say that it is not easy to change the habits of people and thats the point here. If only one often visited webpage does not work on the new browser, people will go back to the blue e.

However Opera 10.5 looks good, is fast and site compatibility is way better then before. If you now iron all the bugs out, there might be a chance, especially because Opera has famous mobile browsers and some people might see the benefint in syncing.

Good Luck.
dualboreWednesday, February 17, 2010 9:06:00 PM
No, not in a significant way.
Z1-AV69Wednesday, February 17, 2010 10:04:13 PM
From all the people I know which browser they use exactly 1 could change to a different browser because of such a screen. I couldn't predict to what browser though. But that 1 person is in fact the only one I know who uses Internet Explorer, so there may be some more of this type...
d4rkn1ghtWednesday, February 17, 2010 11:34:03 PM
Originally posted by johnnysaucepn:

This doesn't necessarily follow. Bear in mind the number of people that think that their operating system is 'Office 2007', or that their word processor is 'Windows'.

There are also people that think the only operating system is Windows.
MasonThursday, February 18, 2010 1:19:03 AM
Originally posted by d4rkn1ght:

Originally posted by johnnysaucepn:

This doesn't necessarily follow. Bear in mind the number of people that think that their operating system is 'Office 2007', or that their word processor is 'Windows'.
There are also people that think the only operating system is Windows.

xD it's funny what people think. Microsoft will likely have the default choice as IE or have recommended or something and people won't really care and just click next.
L2D2Thursday, February 18, 2010 2:37:46 AM
I think a little education on the subject of browsers should be out there; places where people who are not familiar with PCs or Macs will see them.

I know that I am self-taught where computers are concerned, and I had been using my PC for quite some time before I finally realized what a browser is! I thought only IE was used on all computers.

I think, when given the choice, if there is an explanation of each to help them make the choice, that many will choose something besides IE, just out of curiosity if no other reason. That's how I became an Opera convert. I saw it mentioned somewhere (I had read about Opera on many Linux forums).

Maybe it will take some time, but, for those who do choose Opera or even FF (I tried Google, didn't much like it) they will kick IE to the curb, just as I have done. The only time I use IE is when I run across a dinosaur app or site that doesn't support Opera.

http://files.myopera.com/L2D2/STUFF/Smilies//likeopera_girl.gif -
MJerezThursday, February 18, 2010 4:03:31 AM
I think there will be a progressive change about browsers. As usual the browser that makes more noise, will be more used. I mean about advertisement.
Opera has a couples of "bells" to make noise. One is opera mini. I read some my.opera abouts, and a lot of ppl knows opera from the mini or mobile version.
another thing is making things different, like unite and widgets. This things may bloat the browser (i don't think they affects that much), but a lot of blogs makes reviews and people get interested.
Most of people that tries another browser than default are likely to test several and choose the better (for them). The idea it's to make most of people know Opera before they get the "choice screen".
Have a fair battle
tomassplatchThursday, February 18, 2010 7:40:58 AM
We will see, but I doubt it will have very significant impact. People don't like trying new stuff and most of them will just try to close the ballot screen or look for the "OK" button. Or they will let someone else choose the browser for them and then rant against it for a while, before they get used to it.
The good thing is that people will probably become gradually aware that there are other browsers. And if it can make at least a small amount of people change their browser from IE, it was a battle worth fighting.
Charles SchlossThursday, February 18, 2010 10:55:51 PM
Choice is good
TamilFriday, February 19, 2010 7:15:39 AM
Saurabh KumarFriday, February 19, 2010 7:28:58 AM
When I first used Opera years ago (I was very young then) on a friend's computer, I didn't even realise that it was a browser. It looked like a browser, worked like a browser, and I enjoyed it but I switched to IE so that my friend would not accuse me of breaking anything. Later when I grew tech-savvy I remembered the cute browser I had once tried, downloaded, realised what a great browser it was and here I am.
Many people will try Opera just out of curiosity and I am sure they will switch. It will be a better result for Opera whether the landscape changes radically or not.
Ice ArdorSaturday, February 20, 2010 10:19:46 AM
I wish I could say that New Yorkers are an exception, but the truth is that America is just that dumb. George Bush was re-elected for a second term and demolished this country for a total of 8 years. What does that say?
Charles SchlossSaturday, February 20, 2010 9:05:32 PM
Originally posted by IceArdor:

. What does that say?

Hardly anything, I am in America and I choose to use Opera myself, I was not old enough to vote when bush was up for re-election, plus there were many other reasons for other Americans
vanvicSunday, February 21, 2010 7:47:30 PM
Cool by me
YndiSunday, February 21, 2010 10:29:59 PM
Well, I saw the webpage which is used for the browser choice:
http://www.browserchoice.eu/BrowserChoice/browserchoice_en.htm
... also available in other languages, if you change the last two letters before htm.

In my opinion forefox has the best short description, although Opera is right behind.
Your "more information" site is the top one from the first five browsers, but you should give some more information about the security part, like fraud protection and less security issues than other browsers or sth. like this.
You can kick Opera Mail and Feed Preview out of this page for security things, because you already have the point Feed and E-Mail Integration.

Maybe you could put a picture like the 5 Opera only features from here http://www.opera.com/browser/?source=choice&language=en at the bottom. I guess visual tabs and speed dial score some points for you.

And get this website translated in every language that is available in Opera. No one who isn´t able to read your information page will download Opera.

I would say again, push 10.5 even harder, but I read that the browserchoice starts in the first week of march and 10.5 not in RC stage already, so 10.10 has to pull the trigger.

A last note: Maybe you should make Opera to ask for importing bookmarks from IE on first start.

Good Luck!
vanvicMonday, February 22, 2010 1:03:56 AM
Cool
Cutting SpoonMonday, February 22, 2010 7:30:11 PM
I think the ballot needs a solid tagline; perhaps "Everything in one place, excellent security."

OK. NO. That was much too dry. Perhaps the Choose Opera Blog should have a tagline contest?
AndrewTuesday, February 23, 2010 3:28:05 PM
Originally posted by jdlien:

It's quite sad how few people actually "get" what a web browser is, at even the simplest level. 8% of New Yorkers interviewed know what one is?! [...] Most of them don't know the difference between a search engine and a browser.

Well Joseph, now that I know THIS (see quote)- I'm quite convinced I personally shouldn't ask to sincere questions anymore - it might threaten mainstream (Well, on the other hand, if it's true, they'll never know that questions were posed).
CHRISTIAN PAUL TOLEDOFriday, February 26, 2010 8:14:52 AM
the browser will be on the frontline for applications of the desktop... goodbye o.s. like windows